Bay Depression Intensifying: May Cross Andhra Coast Around October 28 as a 'Very Severe' Cyclone

The depression formed over the Bay of Bengal is set to intensify further. The Meteorological Department says it may turn into a deep depression as early as today and then gradually gain strength to become a 'very severe' cyclonic storm and cross India's Andhra coast around October 28.

The Met Department gave the information in a special weather bulletin on Sunday (October 25). The system brewing in the sea has now become the focus of observation not only for Bangladesh's coast but for the entire northern Bay of Bengal region.

According to the department, the depression over the east-central Bay and the adjoining southeast Bay has moved southeastwards and is staying over the same area. Its position is at latitude 15.2 degrees north and longitude 91.0 degrees east.

At 6am today (October 25), the depression was located 785 kilometres south of Chattogram seaport, 700 kilometres south of Cox's Bazar seaport, 820 kilometres south of Mongla seaport and 760 kilometres south of Payra seaport.

According to the bulletin, the depression may move southwards and intensify into a deep depression over the east-central Bay and the adjoining southeast Bay today (October 25).

Later, it may gradually change direction and move west-northwestwards. Following that track, it may cross the Andhra coast of India around October 28 in the form of a very severe cyclonic storm, the bulletin said.

Within 44 kilometres of the depression's centre, the maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kilometres per hour, rising to 50 kilometres per hour in gusts. This wind speed indicates that the system is gathering strength.

The sea remains rough near the depression's centre. This condition of the sea is raising the risk for vessels in the deep sea, which is why the Met Office has issued the caution.

Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, Mongla and Payra seaports have been advised to keep hoisting distant cautionary signal number one. With the signal in force, port authorities and coastal residents must stay alert and keep track of the latest situation.

Fishing boats and trawlers in the north Bay of Bengal have been advised to come close to the coast and move carefully until further notice. In other words, staying near the coast instead of venturing into the deep sea is now the safer course for fishers.

The previous day's bulletin had spoken of the fear that the depression could intensify further; with today's bulletin giving a clear forecast of a deep depression and then a very severe cyclone, the level of caution along the coastal areas has risen further.

How much impact this has on Bangladesh's coast will depend on the system's track and strength over the next few days. Coastal residents, fishers and everyone connected with the ports have been advised to keep an eye on the Met Department's next special bulletin.