Brazilians vote in presidential runoff as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro go in virtually tied

Brazilians are going to the polls on Sunday in a highly unpredictable presidential runoff, in which the leftist president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is attempting an unprecedented comeback against the far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who won the first-round vote.

The gap between them in the first round was less than 2 percent of the vote, the narrowest ever recorded before a runoff in Brazil. Bolsonaro's surprise victory made him the favourite three weeks ago, but since then Lula's campaign has gained ground, and the two go into the contest virtually tied.

The 81-year-old president has spent much of the runoff campaign focused on turnout. Abstention reached a record high in the first round, and it disproportionately affects his voters.

At the same time, Lula's camp has sought to stoke fears over what a return to power by a member of the Bolsonaro family could mean. The 45-year-old Flávio is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 defeat to Lula.

A congressman for more than 20 years with few bills passed, Flávio has promised that if elected he will pardon his father. With an even more conservative congress taking office next year, he has vowed to 'change the constitution and re-democratise this country', sending chills through those who fear he could follow in his father's authoritarian footsteps.

The polarisation among voters is plain. 'We are facing two completely different projects for the country,' said voter Nuno Rau, 63, an architect and writer. 'One points towards the end of social rights and the end of democracy itself; on the other side is someone who fought for income distribution and free public education. I may have criticisms of Lula, but there is no way to choose Bolsonaro.'

Aparecida Moreira, a 62-year-old lawyer, will vote for Bolsonaro mainly because of the 'iron fist' security policy he proposes, including building five 'mega-prisons' inspired by those of El Salvador's leader Nayib Bukele. She also agrees with Bolsonaro's position on chemical castration for rapists.

Both Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula drew large crowds to their final campaign rallies on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte. With each side's supporters virtually crystallised, the election will be decided by the small number of voters who identify with neither candidate.

Bolsonaro began the runoff campaign with a lead and the support of most other defeated candidates, but instead of growing, he stagnated in the polls while Lula gained support.

Many analysts see this as the result of part of the population suddenly waking up to the 'fear' of a Bolsonaro returning to power, as well as controversies including the fact that the senator is under investigation in two federal police inquiries over alleged corruption and money laundering.

Lula, by contrast, radically changed his digital strategy and benefited from student-led protests across the country, most of which did not even involve the president. 'In the first round, Lula's campaign failed to connect with the population, but now it has been civil society movements that have driven his growth,' said political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles.

Whatever the result, the race is expected to be decided by a narrow margin in Latin America's largest country, with an electorate of 159 million.

Many analysts believe that if Lula overturns his first-round defeat, Bolsonaro could follow his father's example from four years ago and refuse to concede, and that Donald Trump, a longstanding ally of the Bolsonaro clan, could refuse to recognise the result. According to Telles, rightwing candidates have won all seven presidential elections held in Latin America since Trump began his second term, and Brazil is one of the few countries in the region still offering any resistance to the US president.