US and Israel Draw Up Concrete Plan for Fresh Strikes on Iran in November, Step Up Military Drills
The US and Israeli militaries have drawn up a concrete plan to launch fresh strikes on Iran after the United States midterm elections, American officials and several people familiar with the planning told The New York Times.
As the plan for a short, intense military operation has moved forward, the two militaries have also stepped up their exercises. They have flown fighter jets through Iraqi airspace to rehearse the attack strategy.
US officials said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss the possible new strikes.
Potential targets could include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and its missile and drone stockpiles. Some officials believe another round of major strikes could push Iran's economy into a severe crisis, forcing Tehran to make concessions in diplomatic talks after some eight months of conflict.
There is considerable doubt, however, that a renewed war would be any more successful than the first round of intense US and Israeli strikes from February to April. That conflict raised global energy prices and inflation, weakened Middle East security and put severe strain on the Pentagon's stockpiles of missile-defence weapons.
There is also real uncertainty over whether President Donald Trump will approve new strikes. This year he has repeatedly vetoed plans to resume large-scale military operations — including this month, when US and Israeli forces were nearly fully prepared to attack.
Iranian officials have said that if the US and Israel strike, the retaliation this time will be broader. Beyond regional commercial shipping and energy infrastructure, data centres and undersea internet cables could also become targets. The fighting, they say, would neither end quickly nor remain limited in scope.
The United States is meanwhile assembling a large amount of military weaponry and equipment, which will be fully in place by early November. Diplomacy is continuing in parallel: American negotiators are using the threat of a possible new war as leverage to press Tehran on its nuclear programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
So far, however, Iranian negotiators have refused to make concessions on the nuclear programme, saying the issue will be addressed in a later phase of talks. Some US planners believe a three-day intense campaign could damage Iran's economy enough to force a change of position. But US officials have predicted Iran's collapse many times before, and Western officials note that the Iranian government has so far survived economic pressure.
Dana Stroul, who served as the Pentagon's top Middle East policy official during the Biden administration, said: 'At this stage of the war it is clear that the conventional military operations conducted so far, the current harsh economic sanctions and the US naval blockade have none of them brought the Iranian government meaningfully back to the negotiating table.' Now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Stroul added that neither Trump nor Netanyahu has yet offered a credible argument explaining how more war would solve this strategic crisis.
Israel's upcoming election could further complicate the war planning. The vote is scheduled for October 27. Analysts say that if Netanyahu loses, he would serve as caretaker prime minister, making it hard for him to start a new war. Others believe he may use the prospect of an imminent joint US-Israeli attack to pressure his political rivals into a national unity government to run the war, extending his time in power.
Netanyahu formed just such a national unity government after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, bringing several opposition members into a war cabinet. All eyes are now on the weeks after the US midterms: the Middle East's next chapter depends on whether Washington and Tel Aviv ultimately decide to carry out the plan.
