Six in 10 Americans Confident Midterms Will Be Fair, but Seven in 10 Doubt Trump Would Accept a Republican Loss
About six in 10 Americans are confident that the upcoming midterm elections will be conducted fairly and accurately. Yet the same poll shows most Americans are not confident President Donald Trump will accept the results if Republicans lose.
According to the ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, about 6 in 10 Americans are confident the midterms will be conducted fairly and accurately, rising to over two-thirds of registered voters. The flip side is that nearly 4 in 10 Americans and about 3 in 10 voters are not confident.
By party, similar majorities of Democrats (70%) and Republicans (67%) are confident the elections will be fair and accurate. A slimmer majority of independents (51%) say the same, while 47% of independents are not confident — compared with just under a third of partisans.
About two-thirds of Americans are confident midterm votes will be counted accurately (65%), including 26% who are very confident. Confidence rises to 72% among registered voters. The findings are roughly in line with polls conducted ahead of the previous presidential election and the 2022 midterms, though fewer now say they are very confident.
The poll's most striking finding concerns Trump himself. Seven in 10 Americans are not confident he will accept the results of the midterms if the Republican Party loses, including half who are “not at all” confident. Just 28% say they are “very” (10%) or “somewhat” (18%) confident he would accept a loss.
That closely matches a December 2023 Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, in which 71% of Americans were not confident Trump would accept the results of the 2024 presidential election if he lost, and 27% were confident.
Trump has continued to falsely assert that widespread voter fraud was why Joe Biden won the 2020 election, despite no evidence supporting the claim. Ahead of the 2024 election he said he would accept the results only if they were “fair and legal.” There are now fears he may attempt to delegitimise or refuse to accept the 2026 midterm results if Republicans suffer widespread losses.
The partisan divide is stark. Some 94% of Democrats are not confident Trump would accept a loss, including 79% who are not at all confident. Among independents, 77% are not confident, including 55% who lack any confidence at all. A 63% majority of Republicans are confident he would accept the results, but that confidence is weak — just 25% are very confident. Among MAGA Republicans, confidence rises to 74%.
A 61% majority of Americans say Trump is not committed to free and fair elections, up from 56% in 2025. Today, 92% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 15% of Republicans hold that view, while just 37% of Americans say he is committed to free and fair elections.
Democratic leaders fare somewhat better. More Americans are confident they would accept the results if their party loses — 61% are confident, though 38% are not. Majorities of Democrats (88%) and independents (58%) are confident, while 63% of Republicans are not.
Asked who they expect to win control of the House of Representatives in November, more Americans, by about a 2-to-1 margin, expect Democrats (35%) to win than Republicans (16%), while 28% call it a tossup and 21% are unsure. In congressional vote choice, Democratic candidates lead Republicans by 8 points among likely voters, 52% to 44%.
The poll was conducted via the Ipsos KnowledgePanel from October 9 to 13 among 2,545 US adults, including 2,032 registered and likely voters, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. It comes as the Trump administration has escalated its feud with California over allegations of noncitizen voting, although there is no evidence noncitizen voting is widespread or has altered election results.
