Israel votes Tuesday in Knesset election, coalition arithmetic will decide Netanyahu's fate

Voting in Israel's national parliament, the Knesset, will take place tomorrow, Tuesday (27 October). It will decide the fate of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is described in the report as accused of war crimes.

The Knesset has 120 seats. To form a government, a party needs to win 61 seats on its own. But because of complex calculations, it is difficult for any party to win a majority alone in the Knesset.

Netanyahu's Likud party also did not win a single majority in the last election. As a result, it had to form a coalition with far-right parties to come to power. Al Jazeera said that since Israel's birth, no party in its history has ever won 61 seats alone, so other parties have had to form coalitions to govern.

The BBC said a survey published last Friday showed there will be a close contest between Netanyahu's coalition and the main opposition coalition. One reason is that about 500,000 young Israelis will vote for the first time in this election. In addition, about 70,000 Israelis are coming from other countries around the world just to vote.

Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu's main rival in this election. He could win more seats than Netanyahu's party. But that does not necessarily mean Netanyahu will lose power.

Al Jazeera said a recent survey showed the opposition coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot could win 52 seats, while Netanyahu's coalition could win 50 seats.

Because in Israel, after small parties form coalitions, whoever can gather 61 or more seats comes to power, Netanyahu could return to power by forming a coalition with other parties even if he wins fewer seats. On the other hand, Gadi Eisenkot could also come to power.

Al Jazeera said Palestinian-led parties could decide who comes to power. There are two Arab parties in Israel, the Joint List and Ra'am, which represent Palestinian Israeli citizens. Palestinian Israelis make up 20 percent of Israel's population. The survey said the two parties could win 13 seats in this election.

In 2021, Ra'am formed a coalition with former prime minister Bennett and helped him form a government. It was the first time in Israel's history that Arab parties were part of an Israeli government. Ra'am's leader Mansour Abbas has said that if the main opposition coalition needs extra seats to oust Netanyahu this time, he is ready to help them.