Even as World Prices Fall, Consumers Pay Nearly Tk 19,000 Crore Extra for Rice and Oil at Home: Whose Pockets Does the Profit Fill?

Rice and edible oil — when the prices of these two essentials of the daily diet rise, the effect falls directly on every family's budget in the country. Yet even though rice and edible oil prices have fallen on the world market, consumers at home are getting no benefit from it; instead, over the past three years a family has had to spend at least more than four thousand taka extra, which in national terms amounts to nearly Tk 19,000 crore.

This calculation emerges from reviewing the market picture for rice and oil over the three years up to October 2024, 2025 and 2026. Market insiders say price fluctuations across rice grades and repeated price adjustments for edible oil have put heavy pressure on consumer spending.

The review shows that, comparing 2024 with October 2026, the price of coarse rice has risen by Tk 2.07, or 4.2 percent. Fine rice has risen by Tk 4.83, or 6.65 percent. And the fixed retail price of bottled soybean oil rose from Tk 167 per litre in April 2024 to Tk 204 in September 2026 — a gap of Tk 37, or 22.16 percent.

In the year-by-year picture, from October 2024 to October 2025 the prices of all three types of rice — coarse, medium and fine — rose, with fine rice rising the most. The average price of coarse rice went from Tk 51.43 to Tk 52.28 per kg; medium rice rose from Tk 61.25 to Tk 62.43; and fine rice rose from an average of Tk 72.67 to Tk 77.10 per kg.

According to wholesale rates at Karwan Bazar and retail market data from several areas of the capital, coarse rice currently sells at Tk 52 to 55 per kg, medium rice at Tk 62 to 65, and fine rice at Tk 75 to 80. The current average rate for coarse rice is Tk 53.50 and for fine rice Tk 77.50.

Wholesale traders say transport costs have risen because of higher fuel prices, and the rise in paddy prices is also affecting the rice market. Abdus Sattar, proprietor of Chatkhil Rice Agency at Karwan Bazar's Kitchen Market, said truck fares have gone up with fuel prices; because of higher transport costs, the price of several types of rice has risen by Tk 50 to 100 per sack, and overall prices are somewhat upward.

But the international market picture is exactly the opposite. In August 2024, the international price of Thailand's 5 percent broken rice was 589 dollars per tonne; by July 2025 it had fallen to 392 dollars — a drop of 197 dollars per tonne, or about 33.45 percent. Even after world rice prices fell by more than a third, no positive effect was seen in Bangladesh's retail market; instead, domestic rice prices in that period were either rigid or rose further by category.

According to economists and food-marketing analysts, several structural and economic reasons were at work behind this. Even though world prices fell, the continuous depreciation of the taka against the dollar did not let import costs fall to the desired level; coordinated tariff relief was not obtained in time when prices fell; and because of higher fuel prices and the global supply-chain crisis, ship fares, insurance charges and handling costs at Chattogram and Mongla ports remained high. In addition, a tendency among domestic auto rice mill owners and at the wholesale supply level not to lower prices also became a major obstacle.

For edible oil, the picture of successive increases in the fixed retail price is even clearer. Bottled soybean oil was priced at Tk 167 per litre in April 2024, then Tk 175 in December that year, Tk 189 in April 2025 and Tk 195 in October, Tk 199 in April 2026 and Tk 204 in September. Buying a five-litre bottle, a consumer must now pay Tk 185 more because of this price gap. Loose soybean oil, too, has gone from Tk 155 to 158 per litre in October 2024 to Tk 182 to 186 per kg at present.

Visiting local markets, it was found that bottled soybean oil is not adequately supplied in various markets. Many traders have reduced sales of bottled soybean oil because profits are low. Ekram Uddin, proprietor of Munna General Store in Maniknagar, said selling one litre of bottled soybean oil now earns only Tk 1 in commission, compared with Tk 5 to 7 before — which is why interest in selling bottled soybean oil is low.

The calculation of a family's extra spending goes like this: assuming monthly use of 40 kg of rice and 5 litres of oil, if the average rice price rises by Tk 5 per kg, the extra monthly cost is Tk 200, or Tk 2,400 a year. And if soybean oil must be bought at Tk 204 per litre instead of Tk 167, the extra cost for five litres is Tk 185 a month, or Tk 2,220 a year. Together, the two items add up to Tk 4,620 in extra spending a year. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics' 2022 census, the country has about 41 million households in total — multiplying this extra cost equally across all households gives a national figure of about Tk 18,958 crore, that is, nearly Tk 19,000 crore.

This extra money is ultimately distributed among the various levels of the supply system. A small part of it may reach paddy farmers, growers and producers; but the large share goes to rice mill owners, wholesale and retail sellers, edible oil importers, refining companies and distributors. And at the end of the day, when the same amount of rice and oil costs more, a family has less money left for education, healthcare, nutrition, transport and savings — its real standard of living is harmed.

Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) President A H M Shafikuzzaman said the government has no control over rice and oil price increases; a syndicate's manipulation works behind the price rises. In his view, rice is produced in the country, so there is no reason for the rice market to be unstable. Edible oil is import-dependent, so prices may vary, but they are rising far more than they should — a business syndicate is at work here too. He said syndicate manipulation, more than inflation, is responsible for the price rises; a kind of silent famine is under way in the country, and if the government cannot control it now, it will become loud. Not only rice and oil — fertiliser, transport, fuel and electricity, every sector is out of control, he also commented.