World Must Cut Carbon Emissions by 18 Percent in Four Years to Get Back on Track, UN Says

The world must cut carbon emissions by almost a fifth within the next four years if it is to avoid overshooting climate targets disastrously, the UN Environment Programme, UNEP, has said.

According to the agency, emissions must be cut by almost half within a decade. Without that, global temperatures could rise by as much as 2.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The report also says the chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, in line with scientific advice, has been missed. It remains possible, however, to limit how far that target is overshot.

A report on the ‘emissions gap’ between climate targets and the policies meant to achieve them found that countries are failing to turn long-term goals into effective short-term action.

Global carbon emissions appear to have stalled; in 2025 the level of emissions was almost unchanged from the previous year, the report said.

UNEP analysts, however, are cautious about calling this a peak or a stable plateau. Geopolitical uncertainty and continued dependence on fossil fuels lie behind that caution.

Despite significant growth in renewable energy, dependence on fossil fuels has not fallen. That tension is what makes the path to lower emissions so difficult.

According to the report, cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 18 percent by 2030 and by 45 percent by 2035 would create a good chance of keeping warming to 1.7 degrees Celsius.

Even then, events like the record heatwaves of recent months could become more frequent, but it might be possible to stop the situation becoming far worse.

UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said governments had been warned many years ago that time was running out.

She said an opportunity to stay within 1.5 degrees had existed if extremely strong efforts had been made, but those efforts were not made, time was wasted, and that window of opportunity has now closed.

Even so, she urged countries to keep intact the 1.5-degree target that forms the foundation of the Paris climate agreement. In her words, now is not the time to give up; the question is how to get back on the right path as quickly as possible.