Iran-US diplomacy continues amid war and blockade: Qatar's warning, Pakistan's army chief in Tehran, drone downed over Hormuz claim
Diplomatic talks between Iran and the United States are continuing despite the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Qatar says communication and discussions between the two sides are under way with the aim of establishing regional peace. However, those involved believe that reaching a lasting settlement remains difficult given the harsh realities on the ground, even as mediators keep trying.
Majed al-Ansari, adviser to Qatar's prime minister and spokesperson for the foreign ministry, warned: 'If the conflict continues to escalate in this way, it could turn beyond the borders of the Middle East into a full-scale regional war.' Speaking at the Global Security Forum in Doha on Tuesday (October 20), he said: 'Any ceasefire is not a destination, but merely a door to reaching peace.'
Meanwhile, Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has travelled to Tehran in an effort to break the deadlock in the talks. During the visit he will meet senior Iranian officials. Tehran's foreign ministry said diplomatic initiatives to resolve the ongoing Iran-US conflict and the overall situation in the Middle East will feature prominently in the discussions.
Strategic calculations are at work behind the continuing talks and the diplomatic stalemate between the United States and Iran, reports indicate. Four Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran is deliberately prolonging the negotiations in the hope that President Donald Trump's party suffers a major setback in the November US midterm elections.
In the eight-month-long war, Trump's public support has already fallen to a record low amid high inflation and economic crisis. On the other hand, Iran's economy has also been badly battered by the US naval blockade and tough trade sanctions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at another attack on Iran. He said he is committed, together with US President Donald Trump, to bringing about the fall of the Iranian government. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, visiting Israel last Monday, met Netanyahu, where the two countries' defence strategies for countering regional threats were discussed.
Tensions on the ground have not eased. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it destroyed a sophisticated US MQ-9 drone flying over the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday morning. The force also said a supertanker caught fire after striking a naval mine in the strait. According to their claim, the vessel had ignored Iran's warnings with its navigation and radar systems switched off, and the tanker was carrying more than two million barrels of oil. The IRGC had earlier claimed fires on two other tankers as well. However, US Central Command told Al Jazeera the claim was 'false'.
Since the start of the war, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by Iran's attacks and blockade, creating extreme instability in the global energy market. However, HSBC chief executive Georges Elhedery said Gulf states have begun major investment in alternative pipelines and logistics routes, so the Strait of Hormuz could become strategically irrelevant within the next five years.
Trump has claimed that US military and economic pressure on Iran continues. At an election rally in Kansas he said: 'Iran's navy is cornered, and the first and second tiers of leadership of the country's military capability have been completely destroyed.'
On the other hand, Moscow is also playing an active role in easing Middle East tensions and opening the path for US-Iran talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Tehran and held a long meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. After the meeting, the Iranian foreign minister said that for the first time in history, Iran and Russia are working together this closely.
Against this backdrop, President Donald Trump announced a suspension of proposed new US sanctions on Russia's fossil fuel trade just before they were due to take effect. Although the tough measures were due to be imposed under a law passed last month, an executive order issued on Friday granted a waiver. The steps had been taken under the 'Graham Act', named after the late Senator Lindsey Graham, to obstruct one of the biggest sources of Russia's war funds. In the executive order issued from the White House, Trump noted that he had certified to Congress that granting such a waiver at this moment is in the national interest of the United States. No detailed explanation was given, however, of how the waiver serves Washington's interests. The suspension will remain in force until further instruction from the administration.
Democrats strongly protested the decision. Senator Elizabeth Warren called it an 'extreme and predictable failure' of leadership, saying that by disregarding Congress's intent, Trump has effectively given Russian President Vladimir Putin the opportunity to keep the conflict alive. Senator Richard Blumenthal, one of the law's authors, also commented that the motive behind the decision is not national security but a desire to appease Putin.
Meanwhile, relations between Kyiv and Washington are growing colder. European leaders were surprised by a recent Trump understanding over Russian diesel exports, and Zelensky has likewise claimed he was betrayed. Ahead of the US midterm elections, the White House is urging Ukraine to refrain from attacking Russian oil facilities in order to keep fuel prices normal. Ukraine suspended attacks for a while and then resumed them; in response, Russia too continues heavy attacks on Ukraine's power and energy infrastructure. Fears have also arisen that US intelligence cooperation with Ukraine may decrease, although Trump has denied this. In an interview, Trump made clear that reaching an understanding with Zelensky is much harder for him than with Putin. In addition, a report has emerged that Ukraine's stock of Patriot air defence missiles has effectively run out in the face of Russia's continued drone and missile attacks.
In contrast to Washington's stance, however, the European Union has strengthened its message of standing beside Kyiv. At a conference held in Belgium, Zelensky lavishly praised Europe's 'real leaders'. At the same time, the European Union is preparing to finalise its 22nd sanctions package to increase pressure if Moscow does not stop the war. All told, diplomatic activity in Doha, mediation efforts by Pakistan and Russia in Tehran, and military tensions in Hormuz are now running in parallel — and the whole region is watching to see which way the talks turn next.
